In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown takes us into the complex political crisis of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country on the brink of division with significant implications for the stability of the Western Balkans. Roifield is joined by Valerie Perry, an independent consultant with the Democratization Policy Council, and Florian Bieber, a professor at the University of Graz, to dissect the factors driving Bosnia’s current predicament and the international ramifications of a potential split.

Valerie Perry points out that the threats of secession from Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serb-controlled territory, are part of a long-standing political strategy. She explains that Dodik’s rhetoric serves to distract from pressing domestic issues like brain drain, low wages, and lack of development. Florian Bieber provides a historical context, highlighting the inadequacies of the Dayton Accords, which, while successful in ending the Bosnian war, established a governance system that has proven to be dysfunctional in the long term.

Both experts delve into the international dynamics at play. Valerie elaborates on the role of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his increasing nationalist rhetoric, which bolsters Dodik’s secessionist threats. Florian broadens the discussion by examining the geopolitical influences of regional actors like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whose illiberal policies and alliances complicate the EU’s stance on Bosnia.

As the conversation shifts to potential future scenarios, the guests offer a sobering outlook. Florian envisions a continued status quo, with Bosnia remaining in a state of slow decline unless there is significant external intervention. Valerie warns of the broader implications of corruption and economic stagnation, suggesting that without meaningful reforms and international support, Bosnia’s prospects for EU integration remain bleak.

Quotes

1. “Dodik’s business model is to stoke division, distracting from issues like brain drain and low wages.” – Valerie Perry
2. “The Dayton Accords were meant to end the war, not to be a long-term governance solution.” – Florian Bieber
3. “Serbia’s nationalist rhetoric under Vučić mirrors Russia’s strategy of regional influence.” – Florian Bieber
4. “Economic development is hampered by instability and corruption, deterring investment.” – Valerie Perry
5. “Bosnia could become a cordon sanitaire for migrants, exacerbating its political and social challenges.” – Valerie Perry

Further Reading

1. The Dayton Accords and their implications
2. The rise of nationalism in Serbia
3. Economic disparities in the Western Balkans
4. Corruption and state capture in Southeast Europe

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